I’ve often wondered if the early Web pioneers had it all to do over again if Web companies would have put less of an emphasis on free.
People have been conditioned against paying for services or content on the Web, and the Web elite only have each other to blame. For all the talk of Web companies getting users first and “figuring out” how to make money later, the only two jaw-droppingly, multi-billion-dollar, innovative new ways to advertise online have been Google’s paid search ads and Groupon’s solution to unlocking local ad dollars on a mass scale. Those who win big–like Google– just perpetuate the cult of free content and services as a way of spoiling would be competitors. Witness a big disconnect between popularity and money. Exhibit A: Yahoo.
As a result, Netflix and Match.com are two of the only companies to have figured out ways to build large, lucrative subscription businesses online. Meanwhile, LinkedIn is one of the only Web 2.0 companies that has created a huge business with a freemium business model.
But on the mobile Web it’s a do-over, and it’s a totally different playbook from FREE! People are conditioned to pay for stuff over phones in a way they aren’t online, and they’re not flinching. According to Citibank’s US Internet Stock 2011 Playbook released today, Apple will generated as much as $2 billion in gross app revenue in 2011. For perspective, that’s about the same size as Citibank’s estimate for the entire online video advertising market next year, nevermind way more people watch YouTube than have an iPhone and it’s been in the cultural zeitgeist longer.
The report also cites Gartner’s estimates that the total app market was around $4 billion in 2010 and should grow to a whopping $27 billion by 2013. The biggest driver is smart phone penetration, the impact of which Citibank compares to the spread of broadband on the computer-based Internet in the early 2000s. Globally, smart phone unit sales grew 53% in 2010, and Citibank expects it to grow 29% in 2011 and stay in the mid-20% growth range through 2013.
Several years ago, it was controversial to say that a fledgling product called Android — not the hyped up purchase of YouTube– would be Google’s best bet at another hit on the scale of paid search. Android is already making $1 billion in revenues with an indirect monetization strategy, and Citibank expects that could double next year– not only eclipsing YouTube but the entire online video category. Now calling Android Google’s future is almost a cliche. Good thing Google hedged its bets.
My guest on Hedge Fund Radio this week is penny stock trader and Internet entrepreneur, Tim Sykes. Every once in a while I run into a natural born trader, someone who crawls out of the crib quoting options spreads, price earnings multiples, and book values. His first spoken word was “Sell!” While other kids were practicing their ABC’s, Tim was pouring through prospectii.
During his college years, Tim skipped classes and turned a $12,415 Bar Mitzvah gift into $1.65 million by trading the market from his dorm room. By the time he graduated from Tulane in 2003, he was already running his own hedge fund. Barclays Bank rated it the number one short bias fund during 2003-2006.
Tim argues that if you cut through all the hype and manipulation in the penny stock market, it is clear that there are huge opportunities on the short side. Most of the companies trading there are frauds, and most will fail. Mini Enron’s and mini Madoff’s abound.
Defined as trading under $5 a share, these stocks are purchased mostly by individuals desperate for “get rich quick” success. Promoters buy lists of email addresses from major online publishers, sometimes paying millions of dollars, to launch a never ending onslaught of “pump and dump” schemes. Email barrages and Twitter spam have replaced the dinnertime telemarketing calls and junk mail of yore.
The SEC is so inundated with tips on Madoff copycats and competitors ratting out each other, they don’t have time to pursue gripes about $1,000 losses emanating from penny stock scams. It’s like expecting the FBI to pursue shoplifters of 99 cent items from Seven Eleven stores.
Some of the claims made by these bogus IPO’s boggle the imagination. Tim’s favorite was one company’s efforts to promote vitamins infused with stem cells. Another offered a solar spray that turned you house into an energy source. Then there was the BP Gulf oil spill that threw up innumerable crude eating forms of algae. As for my own experience, I’ll never forget the aquaculture farm in the middle of the Saudi Arabian desert. To separate out the obvious rip offs from the legitimate companies, Tim spends hours a day gleaning through voluminous SEC filings, some of which are blatant cut and paste jobs from earlier failed floatations.
Even though most of these companies are fake, prices can run away to the upside, wiping out the early short sellers. So some risk control discipline is required. When a stock truly rockets, “buy-ins” of shorts can also be a problem. A few hundred penny stocks are launched each year, but only about five a month catch on fire. And remember, Apple (AAPL), and True Religion (TRLG) jeans were once penny stocks.
To avoid being taken to the cleaners by unscrupulous con men, Tim offers some very basic advice. If it is too good to be true, it generally is. It also helps to read the SEC filings, which can be obtained online for free.
Tim claims to have a success rate with his short strategy of 75%, which has delivered a 56% return in 2010, proving he still has the golden touch. His problem is that the strategy is not scalable, and can only be executed with a small amount of money. No mega hedge fund for him.
That’s why Tim has turned to online education instead of ramping up a big hedge fund. Today, he is offering several subscription newsletters, trade alerts, chat rooms, along with a DVD course on making money in the penny stock market at his website at http://www.timothysykes.com/ .
To listen to my highly informative and entertaining interview with Time Sykes on Hedge Fund Radio, please click here at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/december-22-2010-time-sykes.html .
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
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